Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for the ‘Illinois Policy Institute’ Category

By Paul Vallas | John Kass News

October 11th, 2026

Illinois leadership is sustaining policies that have done nothing to improve equity or affordability while swapping out middle- and upper-income families for the poor and illegal migrants.

JB Pritzker’s greatest legacy will be the acceleration of the “Great Displacement,” the demographic upheaval in which Illinois is losing scores of affluent residents through outmigration while gaining relatively poorer ones through both interstate and international migration.

This shift is largely the product of the state’s so-called progressive policies. High taxes and fees remain the primary reason Illinoisans cite for leaving, followed by failing schools, rising crime, limited economic opportunity, and expansive sanctuary measures that encourage low-income in-migration.

According to Wirepoints, Illinois continues to hemorrhage wealthy residents. Since 2000, the state has lost roughly 1.6 million people — third most in the nation, behind only California and New York. Chicago’s population, even with the recent influx of migrants, is now at its lowest level in nearly a century. Almost every county in Illinois has experienced a decline in population. Even more troubling, Illinois isn’t merely losing residents — it’s losing income. [1]

The IRS reports that in 2022 alone, 87,311 residents left Illinois, taking with them $9.9 billion in adjusted gross income. The real damage runs deeper: The outflow disproportionately includes residents in their prime earning and spending years. This brain and income drain erodes the tax base, shrinking critical property, sales, and consumption tax revenues that support state and local budgets. [2]

A detailed Wirepoints analysis of IRS migration data for 2022 shows Illinois was the nation’s second-biggest loser of households aged 26-35 earning more than $200,000. Unsurprisingly, zero-income-tax states such as Florida and Texas were the leading destinations for these upwardly mobile millennials. Illinois has been bleeding this cohort for more than a decade, but the acceleration is alarming. [3]

Wirepoints also found that in 2022, the average adjusted gross income for these departing young households was $435,000. The exodus continues among those aged 35-45 with incomes over $200,000 — another key demographic of high earners. Illinois ranks 48th nationally for losses in this income bracket. More concerning, the average AGI among this group leaving approaches $700,000. [4]

Vallas’ report continues here.

Paul Vallas formerly ran the public school systems in Chicago, Philadelphia and the Louisiana Recovery School District. He was a candidate for Mayor of Chicago.

Read Full Post »

Data suggest the state is on pace to lose a U.S. representative in 2030.

By Lilly Rossi | Illinois Policy Institute

Illinois is on pace to lose its second congressional seat because of population loss under Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

Since Pritzker was elected in 2018, Illinois has lost more than 168,000 residents. In a recent poll of Illinois voters, more than half said they would leave the state if given the opportunity.

Of those who would leave, almost 69% cited taxes as a top one or two issue facing Illinois. In 2024, 95% of those leaving Illinois fled to states with lower tax burdens.

Pritzker entered office as Illinois was already struggling with outmigration. He identified reversing it as a goal in his 2019 economic plan.

Nearly eight years later, that has not happened.

Illinois lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census, continuing a decades-long decline in the state’s representation in Washington. Illinois has lost 10 U.S. House seats since 1910, falling from 27 to 17.

Now past the halfway point in the decade, census data suggest that Illinois is on pace to lose another House seat in the reapportionment after the 2030 census.

In 2030, a decennial census will tally the state’s population and determine how congressional seats are distributed nationwide. Despite small population increases from 2023 to 2025 because of international migration, Illinois has lost residents overall under Pritzker’s administration. Also, international migration to Illinois is declining while the state continues to struggle with outmigration.

Read more here.

Read Full Post »

Illinoisans can vote on races ranging from U.S. Senate and governor to state lawmakers and local officials in the Nov. 3 election.

By Jon Josko and Lilly Rossi | Illinois Policy Institute

Some recent Illinois state legislative races have been decided by just dozens or hundreds of votes.

A look since 2022 shows where the closest races have been, how few votes separated the candidates and what voters in competitive districts identified as their biggest concerns.

Casting a ballot gives Illinoisans a voice in who represents them, while understanding voters’ concerns gives lawmakers a clearer picture of what their constituents want addressed.

How close are races in Illinois?

In 2024, a mere 47 votes out of nearly 59,000 decided who represents Illinois’ 52nd House District. State Rep. Martin McLaughlin, R-Lake Barrington, held onto his seat over Democrat Maria Peterson by less than one-tenth of 1% of the votes.

That was the slimmest margin in Illinois’ most recent two election cycles, but not the only close one. Nine other state House and Senate races since 2022 were decided by fewer than 1,700 votes apiece — and they were concentrated in a handful of places worth knowing if you live nearby.

10 closest state legislative races 2022-2024

Margin of victory in the 10 closest Illinois House and Senate races, 2022-2024

Seven of the 10 sit in Chicago’s outer suburbs and exurbs, stretching from Lake and McHenry counties through DuPage, Kane and Will. The other three are downstate: one anchored around Danville and Champaign, one around Springfield and Decatur and one in the Metro East region across the river from St. Louis.

10 closest state legislative races 2022-2024

Margin of victory in the 10 closest Illinois House and Senate races, 2022-2024

How many people does it take to decide these races?

If you’ve ever wondered whether your vote matters in a state regarded as relatively uncompetitive, consider this: Among the 175 contested state House and Senate races since 2022, half were decided by a margin smaller than 1-in-10 of the eligible adults in that district. A quarter of contested races came down to fewer than 1-in-17.

90 contested legislative races decided by fewer than 1 in 10 adults

Number of contested state legislative races, 2022-2024, by win margin as share of district’s eligible adult population.

That pattern held across both chambers and both years, though state Senate races have generally been decided by a somewhat smaller share of eligible adults than House races. Roughly 6-in-10 Senate races came in under that 1-in-10 mark, versus about 46% of House races, consistent with Senate districts being larger and drawing more votes.

What do Illinoisans care about?

In districts with tighter election margins, candidates will have to make sure they are addressing their constituents’ major issues.

In the Illinois Policy Institute’s statewide tracking poll, fielded quarterly since 2025, high taxes has been the single most-cited concern every time, named by 52% to 60% of respondents as one of their top two issues, roughly double the next-closest answer.

In the most recent poll, from August 2026, 58.1% named high taxes as their No.1 or No. 2 issue, compared with 32.5% for the economy generally and 20.7% for state governance.

Property taxes in particular seem to be the aggravation behind that number. The May 2026 version of the same poll asked residents how satisfied they are with the value their community receives for the property taxes paid. Over 61% said they were dissatisfied, against just 23.5% satisfied.

Article continues here.

Read Full Post »

The ongoing pension crisis is a big part of it.

By Ethan Soifer | Illinois Policy Institute

Despite two recent upgrades, Illinois’ credit rating remains the worst in the country, with a couple key issues holding the state back.

Moody’s Ratings raised the state to A1 from A2, and S&P Global Ratings elevated Illinois to A from A-. The ratings are based on a government’s ability and willingness to pay back debt principal and interest on time.

The agencies said significant headwinds remain in Illinois, including sluggish economic and population growth and the state’s unfunded pension liabilities.

A higher credit rating enables a state to borrow or roll over existing debt at lower interest rates. A lower rating creates more risk for investors, who will demand higher interest payments.

Illinois’ worst-in-the-nation credit rating hurts taxpayers. A Charles Schwab report from shortly before the ratings upgrades using Bloomberg data showed that Illinois’ 10-year bond yields are 62 basis points, or 0.62%, higher than bonds issued under a “generic 10-year AAA index.”

Applying that to the $2.6 billion in general-obligation bonds Illinois plans to sell this year would mean $16.1 million more in annual interest payments than states with the highest rating. That could slightly improve given the recent upgrades.

The upgrades reflect the state’s progress in improving its fiscal standing. Since 2019, the year Gov. J.B. Pritzker took office, Moody’s has upgraded Illinois’ credit rating five times from Baa3, the lowest rating deemed investment-grade and one notch above junk status. S&P has upgraded the rating four times, from one notch above junk status, BBB-, to A. Including Fitch Ratings, the governor’s office boasts of 12 upgrades.

Report continues here.

Read Full Post »

By Jared Walczak | Illinois Policy Institute

Illinois’ tax code stands in the way of the state’s economic competitiveness. The combination of high tax burdens and a poor tax structure contributes to the loss of jobs and investment to other states. From a place of former economic dominance, Illinois now ranks 45th in gross state product (GSP) growth over the past decade and 49th in interstate migration, losing some 943,000 people and nearly $90 billion in adjusted gross income to net outmigration over the past decade. Taxes are not the only reason for Illinois’ challenges, but they are an important contributor.

This research identifies 10 reforms that would enhance the state’s tax competitiveness. Some represent substantial changes while others are comparatively modest, but independently or as a whole they would make Illinois a better place to live, work and start (or grow) a business. They are:

  • Eliminating the throwback rule, which raises little revenue but makes it hard for some remaining businesses, especially small manufacturers, to operate in Illinois, because it imposes Illinois’ high tax rates on all income not taxed by another state.
  • Providing first-year expensing for machinery and equipment to eliminate the current tax code’s bias against capital outlays and treat these investments like other ordinary business expenses.
  • Evaluating economic development incentives, curtailing the least efficient credits and reforming others to yield a better return on investment and free up revenue that could provide broad-based tax relief.
  • Decoupling from a tax on international income (NCTI) that distorts the federal-level tax it attempts to copy and increases costs for Illinois businesses and consumers.
  • Permanently uncapping net-operating-loss (NOL) deductions to ensure that businesses don’t face effective rates well in excess of the actual statutory tax rate, and to eliminate a particularly egregious penalty on startups.
  • Repealing the corporate franchise tax, an antiquated tax that imposes high compliance costs and is levied without regard to ability to pay.
  • Modernizing the sales tax base to make the tax fairer and more economically neutral, and to pay for reductions in the tax rate.
  • Repealing the estate tax, which drives many high-net-worth households out of the state in the final years of their lives, harming the state’s economy and depriving the state of other tax revenue from them in those years.
  • Expanding property tax levy limits, stripping out restrictions that have rendered them largely ineffective and turning these limits into a meaningful tool to rein in property tax burdens.
  • Reforming unemployment insurance taxes to better align them with the overall policy goal of reducing unemployment.

Illinois is a high-tax state. That makes it even more important that policymakers get the tax structure right. These reforms, separately or in combination, will make Illinois more competitive, helping the state attract and retain jobs and grow the economy.

The comprehensive solutions piece continues here.

Read Full Post »

A lot of important dates and deadlines for voters lead up to Election Day on Nov. 3. Here’s what you need to know.

Election Center | Illinois Policy Institute

Illinois voters have the chance to cast a ballot in races for Illinois governor, U.S. Senate, state comptroller, Illinois General Assembly, the Chicago school board, municipal government and more.

Your vote matters — you can cast your ballot by mail, during early voting or on Election Day.

Here are four reasons to claim your vote this election:

  1. Election security: Claiming your vote prevents anyone else from voting in your name. Once registered, you can request that your ballot be mailed directly to your designated address. All ballots received by the county clerk are reviewed by a bipartisan panel that verifies your signature and information against what is on file.
  2. Convenience: Requesting a vote-by-mail ballot does not take away your right to vote in person. If you change your mind, you may surrender your ballot and vote in person during early voting or on Election Day.
  3. Certainty: Permanent vote-by-mail status ensures you can cast your vote even if you become sick or are unable to vote in person because of unforeseen circumstances. You will automatically receive a ballot before every election, so you do not miss the opportunity to vote.
  4. Vote smart: Voting by mail allows you to research candidates, judges and ballot questions from home before casting your ballot.

Here is what you need to know before casting your vote in the Nov. 3 election:

  • What dates and deadlines matter
  • How to find your polling place
  • How to vote by mail

What dates and deadlines matter:

Sept. 24 — Early voting begins statewide. Vote-by-mail ballots start being sent out.

Oct. 6 — Regular voter registration ends.

Oct. 7 — Grace period registration opens.

Oct. 18 — Online voter registration ends.

Oct. 19 — First day of expanded early voting across Cook County.

Oct. 29 — Deadline for application to vote by mail to be received by election authority by mail.

Nov. 3 — Election Day. Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

  • Vote-by-mail ballots must be postmarked by this day.
  • At 7 p.m., counting begins of absentee and vote-by -mail ballots.

Nov. 17 — Last day for election authorities to accept mailed ballots, which must be postmarked no later than Nov. 3.

How to find your polling place:

Voters can make sure their voice is heard at their polling place. Early voting is a good way to cast your vote in person yet avoid crowds on Nov. 3.

Who is eligible for early vote, same-day vote and vote-by-mail in Illinois?

You must:

  • Be a citizen of the United States.
  • Be a resident of Illinois and of your precinct for at least 30 days before the election.
  • Be at least 18 on or before the election, Nov. 3.
  • Not be serving a prison sentence.
  • Not be voting anywhere else.
  • Be registered to vote in Illinois.

Not sure if you’re registered? Click here to find out more.

Article continues here.

Read Full Post »

An Illinois neighbor is vying for donations from state residents.

By Hannah Schmid | Illinois Policy Institute

A new local billboard is garnering media attention by advertising that Illinois taxpayers can get a federal income tax credit for donating money to students out of state.

The billboard, in south suburban Chicago near the Indiana border, refers to the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit, also known as the Education Freedom Tax Credit. The program offers taxpayers a dollar-for-dollar income tax credit for donations of up to $1,700 per year to qualified scholarship-granting organizations.

Any taxpayer in any state can claim the credit starting in 2027. But only students in states whose governor has opted into the program can benefit from the donated education money.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker has not opted Illinois in. Four of Illinois’ neighbors have, including Indiana, where the billboard is advertising Illinoisans to donate scholarship money.

The billboard is correct:

  • If Pritzker opts Illinois in: Donated money flows to eligible Illinois students.
  • If Pritzker does not opt Illinois in: Illinois donors can still claim the federal tax credit by contributing to qualifying scholarship-granting organizations in participating states such as Indiana, but Illinois students cannot receive any of the donated money.

Article continues here.

Read Full Post »

The city added 50 cameras and tickets jumped almost 26%, but the additional revenue fell short of the city’s projection. | Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune

By Lilly Rossi | Illinois Policy Institute

Despite campaigning against them in 2023, Mayor Brandon Johnson added 50 speed cameras in Chicago last year.

That led to a nearly 26% increase in tickets but still didn’t generate as much additional revenue as the city estimated, highlighting the problem with relying on unpredictable sources to balance the budget.

Last year Chicago issued 529,529 tickets to drivers for traveling 6 to 10 mph over the speed limit, up from 424,754 in 2024. That’s an increase of 24.6%.

Tickets for those driving at least 11 mph over the limit increased even faster, rising 30% from 94,906 in 2024 to 123,786 in 2025.

Chicago speed camera revenue rose last year to $64.2 million, up from $59.6 million in 2024. But the rise was significantly less than the Johnson administration’s projected increase of $11.4 million (and an installation cost of about $2.6 million.)

Report continues here.

Read Full Post »

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is seeking a second term, officially joining the growing field of candidates in the 2027 Chicago mayoral election.

By Dylan Sharkey | Illinois Policy Institute

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson announced Sunday that he is running for a second term, joining a host of other candidates competing to win the office in 2027.

The mayor posted a video on social media ending with “four more years.”

“I’m here because I’m the only candidate who’s fighting for working families. If you’re ready for a safer and more affordable Chicago, then now is our time!” Johnson posted on X.

He now joins a crowded field of candidates for mayor:

A University of Chicago poll released in July found Johnson’s approval rating at 23%, while just 13.6% of Chicagoans said they wanted him to seek another term.

Report continues here.

Read Full Post »

Illinois’ population has shrunk under Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s leadership and is predicted to fall further.

By Adam Gorcyca | Illinois Policy Institute

While population growth is a basic measure of effective governance, tens of thousands of people have left Illinois under Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

The state’s outmigration challenge is expected to worsen, with Illinois projected to lose 600,000 residents by 2033, driven by a drop of 450,000 in Illinois’ prime-working-age population.

And from 2020 to 2025, Illinois’ population of residents under 20 fell by 6.8%, more than three times faster than the national average of 2%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Net loss of 168,000

Since 2018, the state has lost a net of more than 168,000 residents, or over 1% of its population. Illinois ranks 48th in population growth rate among the 50 states.

The rest of the Midwest grew by 2.1% during the same time period.

Of the nearly 83,000 residents who left in 2024, almost all of them went to states with lower taxes. Florida alone claimed a net of over 11,000 Illinois residents that year, while a net of nearly 37,000 left for Illinois’ neighbor states.

Pritzker’s second term has seen a slight uptick in population, largely because of international migration. Without that boost, Illinois’ total would have declined in 2025.

Report continues here.

Read Full Post »

Older Posts »