Illinois public schools are teaching fewer students compared to a decade ago, yet taxpayers continue funding a system built for more students.
By Rich Witzel | Illinois Policy Institute
Falling birth rates suggest that Illinois’ declining public school enrollment will continue, a reality that should inform decisions of education policymakers.
The National Center for Education Statistics projected in early 2024 that Illinois public school enrollment would fall to 1.8 million students by 2030, but the number had already dropped to almost that low for the 2024-25 school year, according to state data.
The COVID-19 pandemic was a major factor in the decline in, but enrollment had already been falling for years. Year-over-year enrollment in Illinois increased only two times over the past 15 school years.
This is not just an Illinois problem. Nationally, public schools are serving 1.2 million fewer students in 2022-23 than before the pandemic, and enrollment is projected to fall by another 2.4 million students by 2031.
A shrinking student population
Falling birth rates factor in. Illinois recorded just under 125,000 births in 2023, a 31% decline from 2007 and one of the steepest drops in the country.
Birth data previews of future enrollment trends. Less births today mean fewer elementary and high school students in the years ahead. The drop in births is occurring among outmigration and families choosing other education options, further contributing to the state’s enrollment decline.
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