With migrants offsetting the population loss and Donald Trump available to blame, what do Mayor Johnson and Governor Pritzker have to worry about? | Photo by Mark Black
By Paul Vallas | Chicago Contrarian
Outmigration is one of the clearest indicators of the effectiveness — or failure — of state and local government policies. By that measure, Illinois has failed decisively. From 2010 to 2020, Illinois was one of only three states to lose population, with the decline accelerating between 2022 and 2023. Border states like Indiana and Wisconsin, along with Florida, were the top three destinations for departing Illinoisans.
Over the past 20 years, Illinois has lost 1.6 million residents — third most in the nation. The population fell for 10 straight years, a trend only interrupted recently by the unprecedented influx of migrants. The outmigration is broad-based: Nearly every county in Illinois saw a population decline. Most alarming was Wirepoints report of a loss of over 40,000 households earning $200,000 or more. Though they represent just six percent of tax filers, they contribute nearly 40 percent of the state’s personal income tax revenue. Their departure is a major blow to the tax base. Illinois also ranks among the top states in business losses, trailing only New York and California.
Chicago’s population today is the lowest it has been in a century. Since 2000, the city has lost over 250,000 Black residents — mostly middle-income families. Children have been disproportionately affected, with the number of Black children (ages 17 and younger) declining by 49 percent, compared to a 14 percent drop in Black adults. Enrollment in Chicago Public Schools last year was less than half of what it was in the 1999–2000 school year.
The situation may get worse. A recent poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU found that 47 percent of Illinois residents say they would like to move out of the state. Twenty percent of those surveyed said it is extremely likely, somewhat likely, or likely that they will leave within the next year. This is unsurprising, given that state and local leaders appear either incapable or unwilling to confront the toxic mix of high crime, failing schools, sky-high taxes, and reckless spending that are driving residents away in record numbers.
While U.S. News & World Report ranks Illinois 15th among the states for overall crime, the state has some of the highest robbery rates in the country and ranks second in the Midwest for homicides. Although murders and shootings in Chicago have declined — mirroring a national trend following the end of pandemic-era restrictions —Chicago remains the nation’s murder capital, with nearly five times more murders than New York and two-and-a-half times more than Los Angeles.
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