Some Illinois politicians are using an estimate to revise the Census count and claim Illinois doesn’t have a problem with its residents moving away. A closer look shows they are wrong, and the danger of denial.
On May 19, the U.S. Census Bureau released state-level results for their Post-Enumeration Survey. The survey estimates Illinois’ household population was undercounted by 1.97% during the 2020 official Census.
Gov. J.B. Pritzker used that information to claim Illinois welcomed over 250,000 new residents.
But the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program tells a different, consistent story. It has estimated Illinois population declines each year since 2014, including in 2021 when its numbers showed a record-setting loss of 114,000 residents.
Two separate estimates and a head count each yielding different numbers complicate this simple question: “Are Illinoisans leaving for greener pastures?” That is, unless you have a data analyst to help sort through it, which the Illinois Policy Institute is happy to provide. Stay with us.
What is really going on with Census data?
To accurately decipher the various estimates of population levels and changes it is important to have a fundamental understanding of what each program from the Census Bureau does, and how it is intended to be used.
Let’s start with the official decennial census, the most recent of which was the 2020 census count. Each decennial census is an count of the U.S. population on April 1 of the reference year. The population is determined based on physical responses from each household and the results are used to determine representation in Congress and the allocation of some federal spending. These counts include those living in group settings such as college dorms, nursing homes and prisons. The 2020 official Census count estimated Illinois’ population to be 12,812,508 as of April 1, 2020.
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